Can Three Men Decide Ukraine’s Fate Without Ukraine at the Table? | Nexdel Intelligence

Can Three Men Decide Ukraine’s Fate Without Ukraine at the Table?

Vladimir Putin wants a summit with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to settle the war in Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky is not on the guest list. Here is what is known, what led to it, and what to watch before November.

NX / GEO Nexdel IntelligenceGlobal Dynamics · Geopolitics · October 19, 2026 7 min read

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed meeting U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the discussions cited by The Wall Street Journal on October 18, 2026. The reported aim is a settlement on terms favourable to Moscow, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would not take part.^[1][2]

The proposal arrives as the full-scale war passes four years,^[1] and it lands on top of a U.S.-led negotiating process that does include Kyiv and its European partners.

~4.8M tRussian dieselVolume Trump announced after the Oct 9 call^[4]

~30%Output declineReported fall in Russian diesel output (IEA)^[4]

$250BEU energy paymentsTrump’s claim of what the EU paid Russia for energy^[6]

01The proposal

Key reported details:

When it was raised: Putin put the idea to Trump during their October 9 phone call, according to a former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the matter.^[2]
Where it could happen: Reports point to the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Shenzhen, China, scheduled for November 18–19, 2026.^[2][3]
Moscow’s position: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that discussions about a possible meeting are under way.^[2]
Washington’s position: A senior U.S. official said Trump has not agreed to such a summit, though he could be open to it given his pledge to end the war.^[2]
Beijing’s position: The Chinese Embassy in Washington had not commented. People familiar with the discussions said Xi is trying to balance support for Putin against China’s economic ties with Europe, which a three-way summit on Ukraine could strain.^[1]

02How we got here: the October 9 phone call

The same call that produced the summit idea also produced a deal on Russian diesel.

Trump announced on Truth Social that Russia would supply over 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, 1 million tonnes after that, and a further 3 million tonnes later: nearly 5 million tonnes in total.^[4]
The U.S. Treasury immediately issued a temporary licence allowing Russian diesel to reach global markets. The exemption runs until April 7, 2027.^[4][5]
The International Energy Agency says Russian diesel output has fallen by about 30%, following Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian refineries.^[4]
The Kremlin’s readout said the two leaders gave significant attention to resolving the Ukraine crisis and also discussed Iran and bilateral relations.^[4]

Zelensky told Axios the move looked like a “happy birthday present for Putin,” whose birthday fell earlier that week, and called the unilateral sanctions relief unfair. He said he would back easing Russian energy sanctions only as part of a deal to halt strikes on energy facilities on both sides through the winter.^[5]

Trump defended the deal on October 12, writing that he acted for the American people and claiming the EU had paid Russia $250 billion for energy. He also said it was time for Ukraine to get a new president, after Kyiv’s attacks on Russian oil refineries.^[6]

03The parallel track that is already running

The summit idea lands on top of an active, U.S.-led negotiating process that includes Ukraine and Europe.

Miami talks (Oct 9): U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met officials from Ukraine, the UK, France and Germany. Witkoff said the talks also included the European Commission and NATO and covered energy resilience, grain exports, security guarantees and reconstruction, including Ukraine’s EU accession. The talks ended earlier than planned.^[7]
A four-part framework: The Washington Post’s David Ignatius reported that the U.S. and Europe are developing a plan that pairs territorial compromise with reconstruction funding (involving the World Bank and BlackRock), security guarantees for Ukraine, and an energy arrangement under which Russian oil and gas would return to Europe. Ukrainian officials disputed the claim of European involvement in the leaked plan.^[8]
Technical trilateral talks: Zelensky said Washington proposed U.S.–Ukraine–Russia technical talks by the end of October, possibly hosted by the UAE. Earlier 2026 rounds were held in Abu Dhabi and in Geneva (February 17–18).^[9]
A short-lived energy ceasefire: Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on Truth Social on October 11. Zelensky said Ukraine held off on striking Russian refineries for two days while Russia kept hitting Ukrainian energy targets, and later said Ukraine would resume strikes.^[10]

Meanwhile, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said that during the October 9 call Putin stressed Russia would keep fighting until it achieves all its objectives.^[7]

“Happy birthday present for Putin.”

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, to Axios on the U.S. diesel sanctions relief

04Why Xi, and why Shenzhen?

China is hosting APEC for the third time and the first time in 12 years, with the leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen on November 18–19.^[3] Analysts told the Journal that a Trump–Xi–Putin meeting on Ukraine could advance Xi’s ambitions for China’s role in global diplomacy. The risk for Beijing is Europe: China’s economic ties with the EU are the counterweight to its partnership with Moscow.^[1]

05What to watch

1
Whether Trump accepts. As of October 18, a senior U.S. official said he has not.^[2]
2
Whether Beijing comments. China’s public response will signal whether Xi wants the role of co-broker or prefers distance.
3
Europe’s reaction. The diesel deal already caused outrage in Ukraine and European capitals.^[6] A summit excluding Kyiv would test transatlantic unity further.
4
The end-of-October technical talks. If they go ahead with Ukraine in the room, they offer a format that competes directly with Putin’s proposal.^[9]
5
The energy war. Strikes on refineries and power grids, and the winter that follows, will shape each side’s leverage going into November.^[10]

06Key numbers

Figure	What it measures
~4.8 million tonnes	Russian diesel volume Trump announced after the Oct 9 call
~30%	Reported fall in Russian diesel output (IEA)
April 7, 2027	Expiry of the U.S. sanctions exemption on Russian diesel
Nov 18–19, 2026	APEC Leaders’ Meeting, Shenzhen
4+ years	Duration of the full-scale war

■ Strategic Assessment

Two negotiating formats are now competing for the same war. One, U.S.-led, keeps Ukraine and Europe in the room and is working through security guarantees, reconstruction and energy. The other, floated by Moscow, would move the decision to three leaders in Shenzhen, with Kyiv absent.

The October 9 call shows why the second format appeals to the Kremlin. The same conversation produced sanctions relief on Russian diesel at a moment when Ukraine’s refinery strikes had cut output, and Putin used it to restate that Russia would keep fighting until it achieves all its objectives. Moscow is seeking terms at the summit level while conceding nothing on the battlefield.

The decisive variables sit in Washington and Beijing. Trump has not accepted, and Xi must weigh a co-broker role against China’s economic ties with Europe. Until either moves, the end-of-October technical talks and the winter energy war remain the clearest indicators of who holds leverage going into November.